75 Years After Trinity

by Matthew Edwards

27 July 2020

An anniversary passed with surprisingly little comment a couple of weeks ago. Maybe it was the latest doom and gloom of COVID occupying the airwaves or the news breaking about high-profile Twitter accounts being hacked that took more attention – because obviously news involving Kim Kardashian or Kanye West is the Most Important Thing. Here in Vienna, maybe it was the second Austrian/Austrian-linked banking scandal in two weeks with the collapse of Commerzialbank Mattersburg (another one with suspected massive fraud). Immediate crises always push out everything else.

Or maybe it’s not a surprise that the anniversary passed by with such little comment. Maybe it was because it was one that many would rather forget.

Seventy-five years ago, at 5:29am on 16 July 1945, in the Jornada del Muerto desert about 35 miles (56 km) southeast of Socorro, New Mexico, USA, the first ever detonation of a nuclear device took place. The codename for the test was ‘Trinity’.

In a way it is not surprising that the 75th anniversary of Trinity passed by quietly. Nuclear weapons are one of those things that many people would rather consign to the past. Some would rather ignore them and not worry about considering them. Others, if people think about them at all, remember them as a relic of the Cold War. And even those paying attention to them more often do so from a disarmament perspective, something to be expunged from the world.

Many believe that they no longer have any relevance for the world. The military and political situation has changed beyond recognition. Two large ideologically driven blocs no longer confront one another. The NATO/Warsaw Pact dividing line in Europe has been over for 30 years. There is no longer a militarised Central Europe. The 3rd SHOCK and 8th GUARDS armies will not drive for the Fulda Gap. One no longer sees military cartographic symbols for army groups – not in Europe anyway. Masses of strike, interception, interdiction, and ground support aircraft are not on runways or in hangars ready for operations. Europe, at least, is not about to blow itself apart with or be blown apart by nukes. (The continent did perfectly well destroying itself without them, thank you very much. Twice.)

Nuclear weapons are just a relic, at least for many from Europe. Something of bygone years. Something that only needs to be worried about when a rogue scientist wants to make some cash or when a certain dictator feels he hasn’t been getting enough airtime.

So why bother recalling Trinity? There’s more important stuff. Let the anniversary pass without note, like so many others. A world of acronyms and initialisms – MAD, SIOP, SS-20, ICBM, MIRV, CASD – has passed unlamented. And even for those in political and international circles, well, there are other things to consider. Only a small number of hard-line hawks or military people care about nuclear issues these days and they need to relax a bit. Right?

Not really.

American, British and French submarines are still on continuous sea deterrence patrols. Russia still tests its intercontinental ballistic missiles, accepting the latest into service in 2018, and upgrades nuclear bunkers in Kaliningrad. India and Pakistan still face each other along their border, with both sides developing concepts for how to use or prevent the other side using their nuclear forces. Iran is still trying to develop nuclear and missile capabilities, with Saudi Arabia threatening to develop its own capability should Iran do so. China is upgrading its nuclear capabilities, with its policy on no-first-use having become more ambiguous. Israel sits quietly back and doesn’t comment. And everyone looks at North Korea and wonders what crazy stuff will happen next.

Nuclear weapons are not in the mind of the general public as they were in the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s, but they are still there. And they do still have considerable relevance. For all that many – especially in Europe – may scoff or would rather ignore, they are the final guarantor of the security of many countries. The NATO nuclear umbrella does cover all member states in Europe and North America, as much as that fact might be relegated to a couple of paragraphs in a defence review. For some other countries elsewhere in the world, the awareness of their nuclear weapons being the final guarantor of security is higher – for Russia and Pakistan, India, China and Israel. (And yes, DPRK as well).

All nuclear weapons states are undertaking development and upgrading their various platforms and systems. The chances of countries halting development and getting rid, wholesale, of their systems is non-existent. Nuclear disarmament talks rank around Middle East Peace Process ones for their chances of producing anything. Some of the current agreements restricting testing or the deployment of certain systems in Europe are fraying (to put it mildly). And that is before the rise of China and Xi Jinping’s more assertive role for the country is considered. Whether people wish to put focus on nuclear weapons, systems, and doctrine is irrelevant. Seventy-five years after Trinity, they remain an important component of the international security system – one that is too powerful to forget or ignore and in which it is too dangerous to lack understanding.